This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 12 14:00 Treasury Budget Jan $40.0B $40.0B $21.0B
Feb 13 08:30 Trade Balance Dec -$59.7B -$59.5B -$58.2B
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales Jan 0.5% 0.3% 0.9%
Feb 14 08:30 Retail Sales ex-auto Jan 0.6% 0.3% 1.0%
Feb 14 10:00 Business Inventories Dec -0.1% 0.4% 0.4%
Feb 14 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/09 NA NA -449K
Feb 15 08:30 Export Prices ex-ag. Jan NA NA 0.5%
Feb 15 08:30 Import Prices ex-oil Jan NA NA 0.4%
Feb 15 08:30 Initial Claims 02/10 310K NA 311K
Feb 15 08:30 NY Empire State Index Feb 10.0 11.0 9.1
Feb 15 09:00 Net Foreign Purchases Dec $60.0B $68.4B
Feb 15 09:15 Industrial Production Jan 0.1% 0.0% 0.4%
Feb 15 09:15 Capacity Utilization Jan 81.7% 81.7% 81.8%
Feb 15 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Feb 2.0 5.0 8.3
Feb 16 08:30 Housing Starts Jan 1590K 1610K 1642K
Feb 16 08:30 Building Permits Jan 1570K 1590K 1613K
Feb 16 08:30 PPI Jan -0.6% -0.6% 0.9%
Feb 16 08:30 Core PPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Feb 16 10:00 Mich Sentiment-Prel. Feb 97.5 97.0 96.9
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.
Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.
Today: Another week has passed and we have remained within the 1.2900-1.3050 range. Until this breaks, nothing changes, although the longer we stay in this pattern, the more likely it is that we will break higher. Note the "rounded bottom" forming on daily and weekly charts, which also lends a bit more bias towards the upside. No change to the strategy - continue to buy dips, whilst above 1.2860, keeping tight stops and being ready to hold for a significant rally. A daily close below 1.2800 will probably lead to a drop to below 1.2700, whereas a close above 1.3050 is needed to send the euro higher towards 1.3150 and then 1.3300.
This Week's Economic Calendar
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Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Feb 21 08:30 CPI Jan 0.2% 0.1% 0.4%
Feb 21 08:30 Core CPI Jan 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Feb 21 10:00 Leading Indicators Jan 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Feb 21 10:30 Crude Inventories 02/16 NA NA -589K
Feb 21 14:00 FOMC Minutes Jan 31
Feb 22 08:30 Initial Claims 02/17 320K 325K 357K
Feb 22 10:00 Help-Wanted Index Jan 33 34 33
Strategy: Whilst above the weekly trend reversal level, buy dips to support after an entry signal.
Medium term: The euro has broken above the large flag formation which has dominated the technical picture in 2006. Now, whilst above 1.2900 (1.2800 max), the euro remains in an uptrend which is heading back towards 1.3600, the multi-year high, and possibly higher still, towards 1.4100.
Today: The end of last week was a quiet period for the euro, whilst the other major currencies were somewhat more volatile and unpredictable. We have managed to hold very neatly above 1.3100, with a small "gap" higher over the weekend to 1.3155. We feel that the euro will try to use this good start to the week to rally further and confirm that we have indeed broken out from the recent range into a new bullish period. There is weekly 61.8% Fibonacci resistance just above at 1.3177, so we will continue to allow for dips to 1.3050 (and possibly even 1.2950) before we really get moving higher. Today, hold longs from 1.3100, with stops tightened, or continue to buy dips whilst above 1.2950/1.3000
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