An eventful week coming up – consolidation for EURUSD

coachingfxtraders · Newbie Joined: Oct 22, 2011 Posts: 13 Location: France

If you liked last week in terms of volatility and moves – don’t miss out on this one either. While there might be a different scenario for EURUSD this week – there is an economic calendar packed with events this week – many of them interesting for volatility “play” – and some of them strong enough indicators to set a move or an intra week trend.

It’s one of my favourite weeks of the year as it is one for which one can set many short term strategies for - as well as moves from start to finish.

Last week was very much dominated by the outcome of the EU summit – and while markets generally felt a lot of relief from the outcome – this good mood and “risk on” sentiment can quickly turn to worries. Many details on how this agreement is to be implemented are still outstanding and there is a long ratification process to take place in all member states.

At the end of the week there is the G20 meeting for heads of states here in South of France – and a “test” of the EU agreement might be seen there. While I expect G20 in general to seal their approval to what EU has done – there are likely one message they will send, which is “get it done” – a very much needed reminder as EU has a track records for delays and sometimes not sticking up to what is necessary to do at the right time. And then there is the more serious matter of whether any outside EU countries will back the plan by investing in it. That is the ultimo test.

The week hold s a packed agenda with interest rate decisions and US jobs data as the key indicators.

We well go further into the events per day in the daily morning reports. Monday is the thinnest day in terms of event and it might also be the thinnest day in terms of volume. It’s the last day of the month and many will close their books. There is also Halloween coming up and many use the opportunity to take a long weekend.

My outlook for the week is one of a bit of consolidation. The move up from 1.3150 to last week’s high of 1.4250 almost – was long and almost uninterrupted.

I think we might take a pause and I see a range more in the area 1.38-1.43 for this week.

Monday often sets the high or the low of a week – for reasons which are a bit difficult to explain. And if my range was anything to go about as well as the statement above – Monday should then show the high of this week. Friday closed 1.4145-50 and we might see a test of last week’s high. It could even be exceeded by some pips – but I feel 1.4300 looks toppish.

Sentiment indices show that retail traders are still short EURUSD – which is often an indicator that the pair should go a bit higher.
The crowd is often wrong – or more correctly - late is absorbing what is happening. It’s one argument for seeing the EURUSD a bit higher early in the week.

Whether any of the scheduled days will be supportive or the opposite for EURUSD remains to be seen. A dip below 1.4000 I see as natural and maybe as far as 1.3800. I base this on the likeliness of getting one or two “risk off” days as the practical problems of implementing the EU agreement comes to light.

While seeing a lot of fundamental and sentiment indicators this week, few if any of them should set a trend. We are still seeing EURUSD moving in a sort of tandem with stocks and unless these indicators are really affecting stock markets, they will likely not affect EURUSD either.

Many of the indicators will show volatility upon release – and that is a pip searching game on its own. For those participating in our Skype Trading Room there are preparations for these indicators throughout the whole week – enabling participants to play the volatility game.

Also of interest this week is the range for EURUSD throughout October. The length of the move from bottom to top sets a perfect technical set up for what we could expect during the earlier days of next month. The attraction of this medium term trade is depending on where the closing price will be for this month.

We are entering a good period to set strategies and while the confidence bias might be high, don’t get too carried away. Stick to your risk management procedures.

Have an interesting week.

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